Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.099803 0.114205 0.129859 0.148123 0.168836 0.191586 0.218456
2026-01-25 0.075760 0.094002 0.115379 0.142237 0.175034 0.213738 0.262837
2026-02-01 0.057515 0.076961 0.101402 0.134280 0.177251 0.231396 0.304687
2026-02-08 0.045308 0.065149 0.091801 0.130046 0.183321 0.254684 0.357286
2026-02-15 0.035816 0.055193 0.082935 0.125272 0.187927 0.276845 0.412136
2026-02-22 0.030325 0.049892 0.079637 0.127731 0.203036 0.315786 0.496556
2026-03-01 0.024414 0.042820 0.072487 0.123219 0.207100 0.339324 0.562205
2026-03-08 0.020004 0.037307 0.066801 0.120000 0.212621 0.365884 0.636680
2026-03-15 0.016518 0.032684 0.061757 0.116943 0.217861 0.392713 0.715701
2026-03-22 0.014525 0.030374 0.060339 0.119976 0.234101 0.440388 0.837309
2026-03-29 0.012428 0.027436 0.057234 0.119339 0.243536 0.477405 0.945434
2026-04-05 0.010883 0.025302 0.055292 0.120596 0.256741 0.523179 1.076423
2026-04-12 0.009598 0.023516 0.053862 0.122917 0.273026 0.578334 1.236058
2026-04-19 0.007936 0.020521 0.049311 0.117841 0.273261 0.601937 1.336785
2026-04-26 0.006460 0.017625 0.044416 0.111086 0.268745 0.615167 1.418366
2026-05-03 0.005431 0.015601 0.041147 0.107472 0.270670 0.642502 1.534727
2026-05-10 0.004554 0.013763 0.037956 0.103434 0.270916 0.666200 1.646822
2026-05-17 0.004090 0.012952 0.037216 0.105433 0.286202 0.726756 1.853237
2026-05-24 0.003458 0.011496 0.034468 0.101643 0.286267 0.751304 1.977838
2026-05-31 0.002964 0.010332 0.032278 0.098940 0.288699 0.782028 2.122372
2026-06-07 0.002550 0.009311 0.030280 0.096380 0.291068 0.812973 2.272239
2026-06-14 0.002337 0.008902 0.030026 0.098884 0.308032 0.884374 2.537900
2026-06-21 0.002072 0.008239 0.028843 0.098342 0.316148 0.933378 2.750995